The present study looks at the relationship between climate variability and violent conflict, and the extent to which state capacity is able to mediate this link within five countries in Sub-Saharan Africa that have experience conflict or instability in recent years: Kenya, Mali, Nigeria, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. Because most studies look at these relationships cross-nationally, we recognize that there is much variation at the subnational level in terms of climate variability, conflict, and local governance and seek to examine subnational differences. Despite variation across and within countries, two key insights stand out from the analyses. First, the report finds support for a link between higher temperature variability and greater violent conflict. Precipitation variability, however, shows results that are more mixed. Second, the report observes a general trend whereby stronger state capacity appears, in some cases, to reduce the likelihood that climate variability will lead to conflict.
Addressing the Climate-Conflict Nexus in Fragile States
Created 11/28/2020 Type: Report Region: Global Location: Global Language: English Theme: Climate Change & Conflict, Conflict Sensitivity & Integration, General
The Future of Environmental Peacebuilding: Nurturing an Ecosystem for Peace – A White Paper
Created 02/02/2022 Type: Report Subject: Behavioural Change
Conflict Systems Approach: Methods to Inform Responsive, Community-Led Programming
Created 01/13/2022 Type: Blog Subject: Conflict Sensitivity