As Lebanon Melts Down, Can it Avert Total Collapse?

Financial, governance and COVID challenges are bringing the country to its knees, potentially provoking a new wave of displacement.

As Lebanon marks the seven-month anniversary of the catastrophic blast at the Beirut port last August 4, the country appears to be in a rapidly accelerating free fall. Lebanon’s currency continues to plummet in value, hitting new lows. With foreign exchange reserves falling, Lebanese officials have raised fresh concerns that the country may soon not be able to import key necessities such as food and fuel. Meanwhile, despite a COVID pandemic surge, angry Lebanese have taken to the streets across the country, protesting the rapidly deteriorating economic and social conditions.

Following eight straight days of protests, the Lebanese army began to dismantle protesters’ roadblocks, but senior security officials including the army chief warn that Lebanon’s overtaxed security forces may be reaching a breaking point. At the same time, efforts to form a new cabinet following the government’s collapse last August remain stalemated, deepening popular resentment. USIP’s Mona Yacoubian looks at where the country is heading in the coming weeks, compares this crisis to others in Lebanon’s history, and discusses what the international community can do to help.

It seems that Lebanon may be at inflection point. Where is the country heading and what can be expected over the coming weeks and months?

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